Credit Risk Monitor
AI infrastructure debt desk
Data as of Jul 2026

Oracle vs CoreWeave: the AI buildout's credit divergence

Two ends of the same AI infrastructure debt cycle — Oracle's investment-grade balance sheet straining under hyperscale capex, and CoreWeave's high-yield GPU financing model. CDS spreads, implied default probabilities, ratings and debt metrics side by side.

Credit ratings

Moody's · S&P · Fitch — as of Jul 2026
Oracle
NYSE: ORCL
Investment grade
Moody's
Baa2
Negative
S&P
BBB-
Stable
S&P short-term
A-3
cut from A-2

S&P downgraded Oracle from BBB to BBB- on Jul 9, 2026 — one notch above speculative grade — citing a widening AI capex cash deficit. Moody's holds Baa2 with a negative outlook.

CoreWeave
NASDAQ: CRWV
High yield
Moody's
Ba3
Stable
S&P
B+
Positive
Fitch
BB-
—

Speculative-grade issuer across all three agencies, though S&P moved its outlook to positive in Apr 2026. Its $8.5B GPU-backed DDTL 4.0 facility carries a separate, facility-specific A3/A(low) rating.

5-year CDS spreads — trailing 12 months

Basis points
Oracle (ORCL) CoreWeave (CRWV)
No free real-time CDS feed exists for either name. This series is reconstructed month-by-month from published dealer and market-data snapshots (Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, ICE Data Services, Barclays) reported in financial press between Aug 2025 and Jul 2026 — see Sources below for each data point. Treat it as directional, not tick-level.

Implied default probabilities

From CDS spreads, 35% recovery assumption
Annual default probability
PD ≈ spread / (1 − recovery), per month's spread level
Cumulative 5-year default probability
1 − (1 − hazard)^5, compounding monthly spread level
Risk-neutral hazard rate h = spread / (1 − 35% recovery); annual PD = 1 − e−h; cumulative 5-year PD = 1 − e−5h. These are market-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities baked into CDS pricing, not real-world (physical) default forecasts — risk-neutral PDs run higher because they embed a risk premium.

Composite credit risk score

0 (safest) – 100 (riskiest)
Oracle · Baa2 / BBB-
34.5
Moderate risk
CoreWeave · Ba3 / B+
64.8
Elevated risk
Score breakdown
Composite = average of (1) rating-notch position on a 21-step Aaa→C scale and (2) CDS-implied 5-year cumulative default probability, capped at a 50% PD ceiling

Debt metrics

TTM basis
Metric Oracle (ORCL) CoreWeave (CRWV)
Total outstanding debt $129.5B $24.9B
TTM revenue $67.4B $6.2B
Debt-to-revenue ratio 1.92x 3.99x
Cash & equivalents $31.3B $2.2B
Total shareholders' equity $43.1B $4.8B
Trailing 12mo debt/equity raised ~$106B (debt+equity, Sep'25–Jul'26) ~$28B (debt+equity, to Mar'26)

Total debt = long-term debt + short-term/current portion, from trailing-twelve-month balance sheet data. Oracle FY ends May 31; CoreWeave reported on calendar basis.

Recent bond & financing deals

Since mid-2025

Oracle

Sep 20256-tranche IG bond sale, 5–40yr maturities$18.0B
Feb 20268-tranche notes offering, 2029–2066, rated BBB$25.0B
Feb 2026Equity ATM distribution agreement$20.0B
Feb 2026Mandatory convertible preferred~$5.0B
Jun 2026Additional debt+equity plan flagged for 2027~$40.0B
~12mo total~$106B

CoreWeave

Mar 2026DDTL 4.0 GPU-backed facility, A3/A(low) rated$8.5B
Apr 20269.75% senior notes due 2031 (upsized +$1B)$2.75B
Apr 20261.75% convertible senior notes due 2032$3.5B
Jun 2026CoreWeave-tied data center junk bond$0.9B
Jun 2026First euro junk bond by a US AI firm (EUR+USD)$3.55B
~12mo total (Sacra)~$28B

Sources

  1. Bloomberg — Oracle credit risk hits near 18-year high (Jul 20, 2026)
  2. WSJ — Oracle gets credit rating downgrade (Jul 9, 2026)
  3. PPC Land — S&P cuts Oracle to BBB-
  4. Cryptopolitan — Moody's flags Oracle and CoreWeave as AI's weakest credit link
  5. Terry Hale — Oracle's credit crisis deepens (CDS history)
  6. Roic.ai — Oracle 5yr CDS surges to 139bps (Dec 11, 2025)
  7. CNBC — Oracle CDS plummeting after financing plan (Feb 2, 2026)
  8. BondbloX — Oracle 5y CDS spread hits all-time highs (Mar 2026)
  9. Motley Fool — Oracle credit risk at all-time high (Apr 10, 2026)
  10. Bitget — Oracle CDS two-week high (Apr 28, 2026)
  11. The Kobeissi Letter — Oracle 5yr CDS record (Jul 24, 2026)
  12. Investing.com — CoreWeave gets Ba3 CFR from Moody's (May 2025)
  13. Investing.com — CoreWeave outlook revised to positive by S&P (Apr 9, 2026)
  14. Foreign Policy Journal — CoreWeave's first euro junk bond, Fitch BB-, CDS ~350bps above Oracle (Jun 12, 2026)
  15. ZScoreX — CoreWeave bankruptcy risk / CDS levels
  16. The AI Realist — Two markets, one asset: the GPU debt (Deutsche Bank CDS data)
  17. CoreWeave IR — $8.5B DDTL 4.0 facility close (Mar 31, 2026)
  18. Investing.com — CoreWeave prices $1.75B bond at 9.75% (Apr 9, 2026)
  19. MarketWatch/Morningstar — CoreWeave upsizes bond deal +$1B (Apr 16, 2026)
  20. Bloomberg — CoreWeave-tied data center raises $900M junk bond (Jun 2, 2026)
  21. Sacra — CoreWeave financing history (Jul 9, 2026)
  22. SEC 8-K — Oracle $18B bond sale (Sep 2025)
  23. Oracle IR — CY2026 $45-50B financing plan (Feb 1, 2026)
  24. Data Center Dynamics — Oracle $25B bond + $20B equity (Feb 2026)
  25. Reuters — Oracle Q4 FY2026 earnings, capex disclosure (Jun 10, 2026)

Debt, revenue, cash and equity figures sourced from Perplexity Finance company-financials data (trailing twelve months). Composite risk scores and reconstructed CDS/PD series are original analysis for illustration and are not a substitute for market-priced credit derivatives, rating agency methodology, or investment advice.